Reading reflection – The millennium project (Will future technological advances be a blessing or a disaster for humanity?)

Technological advancements in the future will bring us longer lives and greater convenience, but they can also have negative side effects, such as technological disparities and social conflicts, and we need to be prepared for these changes.

 

Technology and science in the future will be advanced beyond our current imagination. As futurist John Naisbitt, author of Mega Trends, said. “Only a decade ago, people who said that cell phones would have computer capabilities and internet access were criticized for making outrageous claims.” But when Apple released the iPhone in 2007, imagination became reality, and mobile devices have come a long way in a short period of time. Humans have always used their vivid imaginations to predict future technologies: submarines in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, space shuttles in Space Wars, and space sailboats in Papillon. While they may not be possible today, the technologies and products we imagine may one day appear, and they may not be far off.
“The Millennium Project” also introduces a variety of technologies and futuristic life in the year 2045. The authors argue that while advances in medical technology have increased our lifespan and health, advances in computer science and biotechnology will allow us to live longer. People can easily understand their physical condition through “life log” technology, in which a 3 mm biochip is inserted into the body to collect and analyze daily data to check their health status. There will be a computer in every home that will take over the role of a doctor, providing diagnosis around the clock. The author predicts that the development of stem cell genetic engineering to regenerate and produce body parts and the advent of 3D printers will make it possible to replace malfunctioning organs. He also predicts that the rate of aging will be reduced through the activation of telomerase, which prevents the telomere chromosome ends, which are associated with aging, from shrinking in length, and that immortal beings will be able to continue to exist in the virtual world through “mind uploading,” in which the brain is scanned, mapped, copied, and transmitted. The author predicts that the development of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to robots that are indistinguishable from humans, freeing humans from tasks that are difficult to perform and from menial labor. Each household will own an artificial intelligence humanoid.
Despite this promise of immortality, it’s important to note that technological advances that extend human life can be both a blessing and a disaster. When a new technology is invented that will have a profound impact on society or humanity as a whole, it changes the paradigm, the framework that fundamentally defines people’s views and thinking. Problems can arise from people who fail to adapt to the new paradigm. For example, when James Watt invented the steam engine in the mid-18th century, people were initially enthusiastic about the idea of a machine taking over the laborious task of hauling water out of mines. However, the development of the steam engine changed the way production was done from manual labor to factory automation, putting many workers out of work. This led to the Luddite movement, in which unemployed workers smashed machines. Life-extension technologies and the development of AI robots may seem like positive futuristic developments now, but in 2045, they could pose paradigm-shifting problems. The many-fold increase in lifespan due to artificial organs and genetic engineering may be met with resistance and a social climate that rejects cyborgs.
Human life expectancy increased from 60 years in 1950 to 80 years in 2010. Considering that the average life expectancy in ancient times was 40 years old, this is a significant increase in a very short period of time. However, this dramatic increase in life expectancy has created problems that were not present before. Elderly care costs and aging are a prime example. Let’s take a look at the burden of rising social welfare costs. In 2014, Finland spent 22% of GDP on welfare, while South Korea spent about 7%. Japan, with its large elderly population, spent 18% on welfare. You can see that welfare costs increase significantly as people live longer. As the population ages, the relative proportion of younger people will decrease, increasing the amount of welfare costs borne by the younger generation. This can lead to intergenerational conflict as younger people become dissatisfied with the decrease in the welfare benefits they receive compared to the increased welfare costs, and older people become dissatisfied with welfare that cannot be covered by tax increases. Of course, the Nordic countries could go the route of taxing more than 40% of income and giving it back later. However, considering that Finland collects nearly 50% in taxes to maintain its current level of welfare, it will be difficult to sustain a Nordic-style welfare program in an era of aging.
Furthermore, there is no guarantee that the benefits of technological advances will be shared. Life extension and machine-assisted comfort may become the prerogative of the developed and wealthy, while the underdeveloped and poor may not benefit at all. Until the Middle Ages, there was little difference in quality of life due to the uneven development of technology around the world, but as countries in the Northern Hemisphere became more mechanized and informed through the Industrial Revolution, the gap with the South widened dramatically. As of 2015, many countries in the Southern Hemisphere are living in poverty due to the wealth imbalance between the North and South. With 90% of the wealth concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, most countries in the South have not benefited from computers and machines. Advances in medical technology are also not relevant to the poorest countries. For example, more than 95% of tuberculosis deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, with more than 8 million patients in low-income countries each year. The benefits of technology that we take for granted in the developed world are a pipe dream in the underdeveloped world. In the future, when the technological gap widens, it will be like the “Xenon paradox,” where the gap cannot be closed and the laggards cannot be overcome. Xenon’s paradox is a thesis used by Greek philosopher Parmenides that the gap between two objects cannot be reduced. Imagine that Achilles and the tortoise are in a race, and the race is so unfair that the tortoise is allowed to start ahead of Achilles. In this case, Achilles will never be able to catch up to the tortoise. When Achilles reaches the tortoise’s original position, the tortoise will be further ahead of him. When Achilles reaches the tortoise’s second location, the tortoise will be further ahead. This situation repeats infinitely, so Achilles will never catch up to the tortoise.
“Whenever a new technology is introduced to humanity, humanity has always had an ‘anti-technology’ reaction, sometimes trying to turn it into nothing. We will have to mature our consciousness to match our technological advancement.” (John Naisbitt) In the world of StarCraft, humanity is faced with unimaginable scientific and technological advancements in the 21st century, but the backward nations are denied the benefits, and the developed nations’ jealousy of taxes and cyborg humans leads to a genocide of 60 million people and social chaos. This is not to say that the future of 2045 will be as bleak and negative as StarCraft. However, we need to anticipate and prepare for the side effects of technological advancement, such as technological rejection, intergenerational class conflict and unequal distribution of wealth as we age, and work to ensure that the benefits of technology flow to all of humanity. Unchecked technological advancement will no longer be an angel that benefits humanity, but a Lucifer that will bring misery and destruction to humanity.