Can you predict a 1 in 1000 year wave, and how do offshore plant designers incorporate it into their designs?

Offshore plants produce oil in the ocean and must be designed to withstand strong waves. Offshore plant designers analyze historical data to predict 100- to 1,000-year wave events and incorporate them into their designs to ensure stability.

 

Can we predict the next 1000 years? Of course, it’s very difficult, almost impossible, to accurately predict all of the changes and events that will occur over the course of 1000 years. Even the events of tomorrow are often difficult to predict. Despite the fact that science and technology are improving every day, we are still not granted the ability to know exactly what the future holds. However, there are people whose job it is to predict 1000 years in advance. These are offshore plant designers.
Offshore plants are large-scale installations that produce oil or gas from the sea. In recent years, offshore oil fields have gained more attention due to the depletion of resources in onshore fields, and the role of offshore plants has become increasingly important. To produce all the resources of an offshore field, an offshore plant must be located at sea and operate for at least 30 years. During that time, they must withstand strong winds and rough waves, and minimize the effects of severe weather changes and the ocean environment.
The amount of oil an offshore plant produces per day can be in the trillions of barrels. The reliability of an offshore plant is directly linked to an oil company’s bottom line, and it is essential that it operate without interruption. If an offshore plant is interrupted by an unexpected wave, the company will suffer astronomical damages. Therefore, it is very important to accurately predict the height of the waves in the environment where the offshore plant will be installed. This is where the concept of design wave height comes into play.
Before designing an offshore plant, designers estimate the ‘maximum height of a wave that comes once every M years’. Where M years is the probability of a wave occurring once in 100, 500, or 1000 years. This prediction is an important factor in determining how long the plant can operate safely at sea. Offshore plants are usually designed to withstand wave heights that come once every 100 to 1,000 years. This depends on the requirements of the shipowner, and different projects set different design criteria.
However, predicting the design wave height is not so simple. Since we humans are not very good at predicting the future, offshore plant designers use historical data to predict the future. Historical weather patterns and observational records play an important role in this process. The process of obtaining a design wave height is like learning about the future from history. In other words, by analyzing the records of past waves, we can predict the maximum height of future waves.
Here’s how to get the design wave height First, measure the height and number of waves that have occurred over a period of time in the area where the offshore plant will be installed. Based on this, calculate the probability of each wave height occurring. For example, if a 12-meter wave occurred 12 times out of 10,000 waves, the probability would be 0.0012. By calculating the probability of each wave occurring, we can estimate the height of a wave that comes once every 1000 years.
In the real world, designers don’t just make predictions based on observed data. Decades of ocean observation records, climate models, and even AI technology are used to predict future weather changes. The unique environmental characteristics of the waters where the offshore plant will be installed are also taken into account. For example, extreme environments, such as the Arctic Ocean, require more careful design because they are more likely to experience unusual wave or weather events than usual.
This predictive work by offshore plant designers goes beyond simple design. If they fail to accurately predict wave heights, the plant could suffer major damage, which could lead to serious environmental disasters such as oil spills. It could also lead to unreliable access to ocean resources, which could have a major impact on the global economy. Therefore, their efforts to predict 1,000 years ahead are not just for the benefit of their companies, but are closely linked to the future of the planet.
After all, the role of offshore plant designers is to prepare for extreme events that may occur once in a thousand years. Without their thorough forecasting and preparation, the exploitation of marine resources would be much slower, and as a result, we might face crises such as energy shortages sooner.